The Weekly Newsletter For Investing In Technology Stocks

Updated Daily

Week of August 25, 2008

Volume 1 #17. Raleigh, N.C.

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Technology Stock Investments
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The 9 High Technology Value Chains
 
We define 9 high tech value chains, where we believe most of America’s innovation occurs in sustaining product innovations and radical technology crossover between industrial sectors.
 
We use the analysis of Dr. Ed Feser, of the University of Illinois, to define the nine value chains, also sometimes called industrial clusters. Feser’s most recent work is titled, Benchmark Value Chain Industry Clusters For Applied Regional Research, (October 2005, Department of Urban and Regional Planning & Regional Economics Applications Laboratory(REAL), University of Illinois).
 
The nine value chain main categories are:
1.      Chemicals
2.      Precision Instruments
3.      Engine Equipment
4.      Computer and Electronic Equipment
5.      Information Services
6.      Pharmaceuticals
7.      Fertilizer and Chemical Products
8.      Industrial Machinery and Distribution Equipment
9.      Aerospace
 
Each main category of a value chain has members from different industrial sectors who trade with each other in producing a final finished good or product. Sometimes this activity is called a “supply chain, or a value chain.”
 
In the Feser methodology of deriving the value chains, each value chain consists of industry i, for example firms in Petro Chemicals are trading partners with firms in the 13 other industrial sectors who make up the Chemicals Value Chain. Firms from the Petro Chemical sector buy supplies from its suppliers (upstream firms) and sells to firms who are customers in (downstream) industries. For example, Petro Chemicals sells products to Plastic Materials & Resins.
 
In principle, there is a distinct value chain for each main value chain category. For example, the Chemicals Value Chain can be identified by the 13 members who trade with each other.
 
In practice, the Feser method applies statistical factor analysis on coefficients in a national input output table to identify a reduced number of value chains that are, in essence, groups of industries with highly similar—and therefore linked—chains. The great value of the Feser method is that it describes both the production technology of how a good is made, and also identifies the market of buyers for that good, as it winds its way to becoming a finished good, in the final demand marketplace.
 
In the Feser method, any given value chain category would be comprised of members from industrial sectors whose trading relationships and linkages with one another are stronger than their linkages with sectors outside the group.
 
In the New Technology Markets Newsletter, we start with the nine high technology value chains, and apply the insights from a theory of technological evolution, called Structural Evolutionary Regional Economic Theory (SERET) , to come up with ideas and insights for investment opportunities in future markets.
 
You can read more about SERET in our book, Predicting Technology, (2007). You can also visit another website where we describe more about the implications of technological evolution.
 
 
 
The Nine High Technology Value Chains and Individual Industrial Sector Members
Title of                                                    Input Output                  Industrial Sector Members
Value Chain                                       Classification
1. Chemicals
 
 
 
 
325110
Petro Chemical Mfg.
 
 
325211
Plastic Materials & Resins Mfg.
 
 
325190
Basic Organic Chemical Mfg.
 
 
325212
Synthetic Rubber Mfg.
 
 
325222
Organic Fiber Mfg.
 
 
325520
Adhesive Mfg.
 
 
325613
Surface Active Agents Mfg.
 
 
325221
Cellulosic Organic Fiber Mfg.
 
 
325998
Misc. Chemical Products Mfg.
 
 
325991
Custom Compounding Resins
 
 
325320
Pesticides/Agric. Chemical Mfg.
 
 
325311
Nitrogenous Fertilizer Mfg.
 
 
325910
Printing Ink Mfg.
 
 
 
 
 
2. Precision Instruments
 
 
 
 
334513
Industrial Process Variable Instruments
 
 
33451A
Watches Clocks, Measuring and Control Instruments
 
 
334516
Analytical Lab Instruments
 
 
334512
Automatic Environmental Control Instruments
 
 
333314
Optical Instruments and Lens Mfg.
 
 
334514
Fluid Meters and Counting Devices
 
 
335314
Relay and Industrial Control Mfg.
 
 
334515
Electricity and Signal Testing Instruments
 
 
 
 
 
3. Engine Equipment
 
 
 
 
33396
Fluid Power Pump and Motor Mfg.
 
 
33361A
Speed Changers/Mechanical Power Transmission Mfg
 
 
333911
Pump & Pumping Equip Mfg.
 
 
333912
Air & Gas Compressor Mfg.
 
 
333618
Other Eng. Equipment Mfg.
 
 
332910
Metal Valve Mfg.
 
 
333995
Fluid Power Cylinder and Actuator Mfg.
 
 
333995
Measuring & Dispensing Pump Mfg.
 
 
333611
Turbine & Turbine Generator Mfg.
 
 
332994
Small Arms Mfg.
 
 
33399A
Scales, Balances, Miscl. Machinery
 
 
333991
Power Driven Hand Tool Mfg.
 
 
335312
Motor & Generator Mfg.
 
 
336300
Motor Vehcile Parts Mfg.
 
 
333992
Welding & Soldering Equipment Mfg.
 
 
336992
Military Armored Vehicles Mfg.
 
 
 
 
 
4. Computer & Electronic Equipment
 
 
 
 
334112
Computer Storage Device Mfg.
 
 
33441A
Other Electronic Equipment Mfg.
 
 
334119
Computer Peripheral Equipment Mfg.
 
 
334220
Broadcast & Wireless Communications Equipment
 
 
334515
Electricity & Signal Testing Instruments
 
 
334511
Search Detection & Navigation Instruments
 
 
334111
Electronic Computer Mfg.
 
 
334210
Telephone Apparatus Mfg.
 
 
334413
Semiconductors & Related Device Mfg.
 
 
334113
Computer Terminal Mfg.
 
 
334517
Irradiation Apparatus Mfg.
 
 
334411
Electron Tube Mfg.
 
 
334510
Electromedical Apparatus Mfg.
 
5. Information Services
 
 
 
 
514200
Data Processing Services
 
 
54151A
Other Computer Related Services
 
 
541512
Computer System Design Services
 
 
511200
Software Publishers
 
 
541511
Custom Computer Programming Services
 
 
514100
Information Services
 
 
513300
Telecommunications
 
 
513200
Cable Networks and Distribution
 
 
 
 
 
 
6. Pharmaceuticals
 
 
 
 
325612
Polish and Sanitation Goods Mfg.
 
 
325620
Toilet Preparation Mfg